VINES AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Manoterra decrypts the latest reports and news topics to help you grasp the essentials in less than 3 minutes of reading.

The wine industry is entering an era of structural volatility: global production is declining, while price spikes are becoming more frequent. Climate factors (late frosts, heatwaves/droughts, fires, and diseases) are now regularly affecting supply.

DECLINING PRODUCTION, RISING PRICES...

After two decades at around 250–290 million hectoliters, global production is set to hit two consecutive lows: ~237 million hectoliters (2023) and then 225.8 million hectoliters (2024). At the same time, the average export price will rise from around €2–2.5/L in the early 2000s to ~€3.6/L in 2023–2024, with accelerations during harvest shocks (frost, drought, disease): the combination of falling volumes and rising prices reflects a regime of scarcity.

World wine production and average export price

…CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Multiple climatic hazards explain a structural decline in production: Heat waves and drought reduce fruiting, berry size, and photosynthesis, which lowers yields. Advancing phenology increases the risk of spring frost, with harvests starting earlier, as shown in the graph below (Burgundy). Extreme events are becoming more frequent, leading to declines in production:

-19% in France in 2021 (April frost)
-23% in Italy in 2023 (rain/mildew)
-21% in Spain in 2023 (drought/heat).
In the United States in 2020, approximately 165 to 325 thousand tons of grapes were not harvested due to fires and smoke taint, resulting in estimated losses of $4.2 billion.

Start date of the grape harvest in Burgundy

OUR ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATIONS

RISKS ASSESSMENT

- Map assets/supplies in relation to hazards and set alert thresholds.
- Assess dual materiality: physical hazards and financial impacts.
- Analyze the evolution of activities using prospective scenarios.

ADAPTATION
- Anticipate the effects of climate change (night harvesting, shade, efficient irrigation)
- Adapt agricultural practices (regenerative agriculture)
- Integrate adaptation into prices and investments

IN BRIEF

Climate change is no longer just background noise: it is reshaping the global supply landscape and price dynamics. Operators who measure their exposure, anticipate extreme events, and adapt their practices/purchasing are already protecting their quality and margins. Switching to a “predict-protect-secure” mode is now a competitive advantage.

Sources : FAO World in Data, Labbé et al., Climate of the Past, OIV (rapports 2023/2024), études/rapports gel FR 2021